A rushed effort by released former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to help with a peace process in conflict-ridden Myanmar is premature, since no interested party is ready to discuss a truce, according to an expert from Thammasat University.
Thaksin, who came back to Thailand last year and was released after serving six months of his sentence, reportedly met with representatives of the dissident National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) from war-torn Myanmar in April to explore the possibility of mediating peace talks between the EAOs and the State Administration Council (SAC) junta.
The former Thai prime minister invited representatives of the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Kachin National Organization (KIO), and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) to offer his mediation for peace.
“The offer is premature, as the SAC would never sit as an equal with the dissident EAOs, who are described as terrorists by the junta,” Dulyapak Preecharush, Thammasat University’s deputy director of the Institute of East Asian Studies, told Thai PBS World in an interview. Thai PBS World in an interview.
The EAOs reportedly refused to sign any binding documents that would give Thaksin a mandate to mediate a truce, hence his efforts were doomed to fail, Dulyapak said, but he added that Thaksin was unlikely to give up.
The SAC junta has not reacted to Thaksin’s initiative.
Dulyapak, a scholar who authored the book, “The Politics of Federalization in Myanmar”, said the military junta might not be interested in any peace initiative as it has announced a plan to move forward with holding a general election under Min Aung Hlaing’s road map.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing would discuss the election plan with former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen when the latter visits Myanmar this week.
Government in the dark?
Thaksin’s peace initiative came in the midst of a major offensive operation by the EAOs in the areas along the Thai border.
The Thai authorities also heightened their vigilance when the KNU’s armed wing, Karen National Liberation Army, and the NUG’s People’s Defense Force attacked the Myanmar military stronghold near Myawaddy, a township across Mae Sot district in Thailand’s Tak province, in early April.
Thaksin’s unexpected move put the Pheu Thai Party-led government in an awkward position.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who had met the former premier during the Songkran festival, around the time Thaksin had met the Myanmar dissident groups, told reporters that he was not aware of the meeting in question.
Srettha said the Thai government wanted to see peace return to Myanmar and many government agencies, including the foreign ministry and security agencies, were quietly working with all relevant parties.
Newly appointed Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa said he knew about the meeting, but added that the Thai government had nothing to do with Thaksin’s initiative.
The ex-PM might work on the peace plan in his personal capacity as he knew many people and was widely known among the concerned parties, he said.
The leader of the Security and Border Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives, Rangsiman Rome, told local media that his committee would ask government officials to testify about Thaksin's actions.
He said Thaksin’s involvement had caused confusion among other countries about the government’s stance on peace in Myanmar.
No honest mediator
Thaksin was widely known for giving a lot of attention to nearby countries, especially Myanmar, during his time in power from 2001-2006.
In 2003, his government started peace talks referred to as the “Bangkok Process” to help reconcile the then ruling government in Myanmar under Khin Nyunt and the democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
The effort did not succeed in bringing peace to Myanmar but gained a lot of support for Thaksin’s government internationally.
Thaksin’s involvement with Myanmar was not all positive. After the 2006 coup, the Thai military government accused Thaksin of having a conflict of interest for providing a 4-billion-baht loan in 2004 to Myanmar via the Thai Export-Import Bank to purchase telecommunication products and services from the then Shinawatra-owned Thaicom satellite.
Thaksin was given a three-year prison sentence in this case.
Thaksin also had a close and long-standing relationship with the SAC’s top leader, Min Aung Hlaing. Thaksin publicly revealed his personal connections during the Songkran festival in 2013 when he made a private visit to Min Aung Hlaing at a luxury residence in Pyin Oo Lwin.
His connections in Myanmar helped facilitate deals for the Dawei Deep Sea Port mega-project during his sister Yingluck Shinawatra’s time in office. Unfortunately, the project did not come to fruition.
No major change in policy
Thaksin’s actions did not have a significant impact on Thailand’s foreign policy towards Myanmar, as it was influenced by three major bureaucrat-dominated pillars: the Foreign Ministry, the National Security Council, and the Army.
The elected government does not have the freedom to carry out foreign policy towards neighboring countries, particularly where security is a major concern, such as Myanmar.
Srettha’s administration might make some adjustments to the policy towards Myanmar, but the overall policy was in line with what the military-backed government under General Prayut Chan-o-cha has established over the past years, according to Dulyapak.
The connection between the Thai armed forces and the Myanmar military, also known as Tatmadaw, is essential for the relations between the two countries.
Under the guidance of the three pillars, Thailand has continued to support Min Aung Hlaing and his government for the benefit of the nation, the scholar said.
Efficient humanitarian pathway
Dulyapak recommended that Srettha’s administration continue its humanitarian efforts but also put more focus on improving its efficiency and effectiveness.
The government began a humanitarian pathway, which received support from ASEAN, initially aimed at helping 20,000 individuals in need in the crisis-affected neighboring region.
The first group of 4,000 relief bags was transported via the Mae Sot-Myawaddy route on March 25.
However, this effort received a lot of criticism, mainly because it was carried out through the Myanmar Red Cross, which opponents saw as a security organization that could control or block aid from reaching people in areas controlled by armed ethnic groups.
Dulyapak, an enthusiastic follower of events related to Myanmar, suggested that the government should collaborate with local and international non-governmental organizations involved in humanitarian work on the ground, as well as various people’s organizations in Myanmar, to effectively deliver aid to the displaced people.
By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk
