President Biden and former President Trump are tied in the most recent average of national polls for a made-up three-way general election that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
Biden and Trump are at the same level with 41.3 percent support, while Kennedy has 7.7 percent, according to DDHQ’s average of 130 surveys that asked people about a hypothetical three-way match-up in the 2024 general election.
Trump has usually been ahead of Biden in the three-way race since Nov. 8, when Biden briefly took over Trump, getting 39.3 percent support to Trump's 39.1 percent. In December and January, Trump was significantly ahead of Biden, but Biden started catching up to Trump early last month.
Scott Tranter from DDHQ said, “Since President Biden gave his State of the Union speech in early March, we have seen him close the gap nationally to be tied with former President Trump for the first time since November 2023.”
Tranter said the narrowing in the polls “is a sign of the intense campaigning and uncertainty in the polling we’ll see as we get closer to November’s election.”
Recently, several polls included in DDHQ’s national polling average have shown a very close race. A recent Economist/YouGov poll had Trump and Biden tied with 43 percent support and Kennedy with 3 percent. A recent Quinnipiac University poll also had them tied at 37 percent support, with Kennedy at 16 percent.
In recent days, other polls have been divided. A Marist College poll showed Biden leading by 5 points, while an Emerson College poll showed Trump leading by 4 points.
The latest development in the national polling average of a made-up three-way race will be good news for Biden’s campaign, which has steadily increased efforts to stop Kennedy from affecting the president’s reelection because of worries about the independent candidate's momentum. Many Democrats are concerned that Kennedy’s campaign could harm Biden’s chances of getting reelected more than Trump’s.
In pretend one-on-one matches between the two presidents, Biden has also seen his numbers get better. Last Wednesday, Biden and Trump were at the same level with 45.1 percent support, according to DDHQ’s average of surveys. Now, Trump is ahead of Biden by 0.3 percentage points, which is well within the margin of error for most surveys.
