The stability of Thailand’s three-way political balance depends on various factors, and one of the most crucial pillars could be the most unexpected.
Thaksin Shinawatra, who holds significant political sway in the country according to a public opinion survey, sparks speculation. The first theory seems to be publicly stated but is facing increasing doubt from many sides.
In the first theory, he genuinely intends to move away from politics, offer political guidance to the Pheu Thai-led government occasionally, and help the older members of the Shinawatra family maintain relevance in Thai politics as long as it doesn't affect his dedication to the younger Shinawatras.
The second theory suggests that he has to become more politically involved than he intended because of the challenges posed by the Move Forward Party to Pheu Thai’s established position. In other words, Pheu Thai is no longer the dominant force in the ideological sphere it once was, and Thaksin needs to address this.
This entails more than just giving occasional advice or supporting the government in promoting the digital wallet. Pheu Thai needs a fresh start, and at the moment Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra don't seem suited for the task. In order to regain the party’s popularity, Thaksin cannot behave like Chuan Leekpai does for the Democrat Party.
To put it simply, while Chuan is no longer the main figure of the Democrats, Thaksin has to be the true face of Pheu Thai. However, in this second theory, it's not because Thaksin is being crafty or underhanded. It's because the brand needs him to survive, either quickly or slowly.
The third theory is quite similar to the second one, but it's not because the brand needs him. In this theory, he orchestrated the entire situation _ his rapid return from exile (the timing, while widely questioned, was actually good because the conservatives were panicking due to Move Forward, to the extent that they overcame their “fears” of him), Pheu Thai’s distancing from Move Forward, insistence on the digital wallet no matter what, and the elevation of “Shinawatra” as the most influential political dynasty in Thailand.
Many people believe in this third theory, even before the Super Poll affirmed Thaksin as one of the most politically influential figures in Thailand a few days ago. The poll’s results emerged alongside photos of Prime Minister Srettha displaying humility in front of Thaksin, whose presence is causing his own daughter, Paetongtarn, the leader of the Pheu Thai Party, to fade into the background.
Thaksin is also portrayed as a mastermind in the fourth theory, which may seem highly implausible at present, but shouldn't be entirely dismissed. This theory involves Pheu Thai and Move Forward plotting to ultimately neutralize the conservatives. They may have been or may eventually conspire, depending on the circumstances.
Supporters of this theory highlight the fact that the conservatives are now backpedaling and lack prominent figures like Sondhi Limthongkul during the Thaksin government or Suthep Thaugsuban during the Yingluck administration. In essence, the timing is right to sideline the conservatives once and for all.
However, skeptics of this theory argue that the possibility of the conservatives being weakened to the point of irrelevance would make it highly unlikely for Pheu Thai and Move Forward to reconcile. Regardless of its validity, political tradition dictates that the two major parties should go their separate ways, one to the government and the other to the opposition.
The skeptics think that eventually Move Forward and Pheu Thai will compete for the same political support.
Can Thaksin help Pheu Thai while Move Forward is gaining momentum? His supporters believe Thaksin’s strong suit is the economy. Pheu Thai’s ideology only became important later on when he became very influential and the legal actions against him were seen as politically controversial.
Thaksin is actually a businessman, which makes him more flexible than Move Forward. If the economy improves and the ordinary people benefit, regardless of his true intentions, Pheu Thai will have advantages.
On the other hand, if things go wrong such as the police situation worsening or the digital wallet causing financial or political problems, it will make Pheu Thai's issues worse.
One thing is certain. His political exile was more clear-cut. He led one part of Thailand and the other part wanted him removed, through legal cases that some might see as involving corruption while others viewed them as political persecution.
Of the four theories, the first one was the least complex. In the second theory, he would need to do just enough to make Pheu Thai popular again without upsetting the conservatives. As for the third, he will have to anger the conservatives, who have some legal advantages, to achieve his goal.
The fourth theory can be the most challenging. Doing too little will benefit Move Forward but not his party, and doing too much may cause the conservatives to thwart the grand plan. A mistake could also harm both parties.
There may be a fifth theory, in which Thaksin’s strategy is to have no strategy and he is improvising. This could lead to the most unpredictable form of chaos.
By Tulsathit Taptim
