The Phillies came into spring with a plan, having five pitchers lined up to start and hoping that nothing would change that.
As the Clearwater part of the schedule ended, the plan had to change a bit due to Taijuan Walker getting injured. This meant Spencer Turnbull had to step in, and any hopes for Phab Phive marketing materials were gone.
Unexpected things happen often in baseball, usually for random reasons, like a pennant winner starting the next season with a 25-32 record. The last week of Phillies training camp showed that the responsibility is on the top starters to lead the club to a good start.
The Phillies didn't make big additions this winter, choosing to re-sign Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. They believe in the potential of Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, and the investment in Walker from last year. Even if Walker wasn't the right fit for the playoffs, his regular season performance was important.
Arizona signing Jordan Montgomery highlighted the need for reliable starting pitchers. Montgomery signed for a discounted price, making people in Philadelphia wonder if it's worth spending more to have five capable starters for the whole season.
The Phillies kept their options open, like having Turnbull and Kolby Allard as insurance. The club has shown it can develop pitchers, but it relies on consistent production from the top starters from the beginning of the season, which has been lacking in recent years.
Nola struggled at the start of last season, but by October, the early struggles were forgotten as the Phillies began the NLDS in Atlanta.
Wheeler had varying performance in the spring after a tough start in Texas. He won three times in April, then lost three times in May. Suarez didn’t start playing until May 13 and didn’t perform well until early June. Sanchez didn’t secure his position in the rotation until the crucial games in Arizona and Oakland.
April is typically a good month for Nola, with a 3.87 ERA and a 13-9 record in 37 career starts in the month (including March appearances). It’s Wheeler’s worst month, with his 4.31 ERA being the only one of his splits above four (it’s a consistently low 3.05 from July 1 onwards). Suarez hasn’t pitched in two of the last three Aprils, with only four career starts before May 1. At age 28 and with 450 big league innings under his belt, it’s almost now or never for Suarez to transition from occasional brilliance to being a top pitcher deserving a long-term deal.
As Rob Thomson and Dave Dombrowski work to solve the mystery of the slow starts, more consistent starting pitching from the beginning is an obvious clue to follow.
The circumstances this spring should favor the Phillies. Bryce Harper is healthy. Kyle Schwarber will be the daily designated hitter. Trea Turner is settled. The bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are more experienced. No one is returning from a World Baseball Classic. Walker’s shoulder and Orion Kerkering's illness are the primary health concerns in March, and any team would be happy with that.
Starting a season with difficulties is manageable. Remember that Bailey Falter started the third game of the 2023 season, and Kyle Gibson started Game 2 in 2022. Both of those teams managed to make it to the postseason.
However, the goal for the 2024 Phillies is not just to host a few memorable October parties in South Philly. It's to win a World Series, as anything less would not be considered a success.
And that effort must start with a sense of urgency right from the beginning.
Contact Matthew De George at [email protected]
