The race for president is very close between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
A survey carried out across the entire country found that Biden and Trump were even at 44%. released Tuesday found that Biden and Trump were tied at 44%.
When the responses were narrowed down to probable voters, Biden did a bit better, but the competition is still basically even, with 47% for Biden and 45% for Trump.
That matches with most recent national polls, which have one candidate slightly in the lead. The most recent RealClearPolling average had Trump ahead of Biden, 45.5% to 47.2%.
And it's somewhat expected because of “how highly partisan this race is and how fairly evenly divided the country is,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.
The FAU poll was carried out among voters across the entire country, and comes as five states, including Florida, are holding their presidential primaries — even though the Biden vs. Trump competition is essentially decided.
The election is almost eight months away, and public opinion can change. And the result is decided in state-by-state races for electoral votes, not the total national numbers.
Only a few people are open to changing their minds. The survey found that 4% of those asked said they would vote for another candidate and 4% were uncertain.
The FAU survey found that most Democrats support Biden (86% to 8%) and most Republicans support Trump (86% to 9%).
Independents are split equally, with 43% supporting Biden and 40% supporting Trump, which falls within the margin of error and is not a statistically significant difference.
The votes from people who never support Trump or Biden
People who do not support Trump were asked why they felt that way.
For the vast majority, 67% of non-Trump voters responded that they would “never” think about voting for him.
This left a small portion of non-Trump voters to explain other reasons. The top concern of non-Trump voters was performance, cited by 12%. Only 2% cited the former president's age. He is 77.
Among non-Trump voters aged 18 to 34, 43% said they would “never” consider voting for him, while among those 65 and older, it was 79%.
Those who do not support Biden were asked the same question, with 43% saying they would never consider voting for him.
The main concern for non-Biden voters was “performance,” cited by 30%, followed by age, cited by 2%. He is 81.
The reasons for not supporting Biden were different for various groups. Among 18-34 year-olds, 37% cited performance and 11% cited age. Among voters aged 65 and older, 23% cited performance and only 5% cited age.
No SOTU boost
Biden's performance at the annual State of the Union Address, which many independent analysts said was a strong showing that dispelled the narrative that he isn’t mentally up to the job, didn't lead to a surge of voters supporting him.
Among all voters, 29% said his State of the Union speech made them see Biden as more fit for office, with 34% saying it made no change. But 37% said it made him less fit.
Wagner said some of the reaction to the State of the Union is “clearly driven by partisanship. People see political events through their partisan lens.” Still, he said, he expected “Biden was likely to get a more positive response than our numbers suggested. And I expect that would be disappointing for the Biden (campaign).”
More women thought it made him healthier compared to men who thought it made him less healthy.
The usual divide between Democrats and Republicans was seen, with 52% of Democrats thinking Biden appeared more fit after the State of the Union Address and 63% of Republicans considering Biden less fit.
It didn't benefit Biden with independents, as 25% felt the speech made him seem more fit and 35% felt he appeared less fit.
In general, more people disapprove of Biden's performance than approve.
His approval rating stands at 47%, and disapproval at 51%.
Wagner mentioned that Biden's approval rating is higher than in some recent national surveys. He stated, 'It's a much better number for Biden than we've seen.' This could be a one-time result based on this survey's sample or potentially the start of an improvement for Biden.
There is no significant variation between men and women.
Differences in age
Biden's approval is lower among the youngest voters at 39% than among the oldest voters at 53%.
The comparison of Biden and Trump uncovered some potentially important distinctions among the youngest and oldest voters.
The survey revealed that younger likely voters, a group that usually supports Democrats, favor Trump. On the other hand, older voters, who show up in larger numbers than younger voters, favored Biden.
18-34 year-olds: Biden, 37%; Trump, 54%. 35-49 year-olds: Biden, 44%; Trump, 48%. 50-64 year-olds: Biden, 46%; Trump, 43%. 65 and older: Biden, 54%; Trump, 41%.
Wagner found the differences among age groups surprising, and stated that the responses of younger voters are a cause for concern for the Biden campaign if this trend continues.
“It would be one thing to see younger voters who were disenchanted or unhappy with Biden’s performance. We’ve seen some evidence of that related to foreign policy, both Israel and Ukraine,” Wagner said. What is potentially alarming for the president’s reelection, he said, was “not just that Biden was doing less well, but Trump was doing considerably better…. It’s hard to see how Biden can win without doing disproportionately well with younger voters.”
Gender gap
The survey found that men prefer Trump and women prefer Biden.
Biden was at 53% among female likely voters, while Trump was at 38%, giving a 15-point advantage to the president.
Among male likely voters, Biden had 41% compared to Trump's 51%, giving the former president a 10-point advantage.
Differences in income
Lower-income voters favor Trump, and as earnings rise, support for Biden also increases.
- Less than $50,000: Biden, 42%; Trump, 51%.
- $50,000 to $75,000: Biden, 48%; Trump, 39%.
- $75,000 to $100,000: Biden, 52%; Trump, 41%.
- More than $100,000: Biden, 56%; Trump, 38%.
House of Representatives
Likely voters are evenly split regarding the U.S. House of Representatives, with 45% saying they would vote for Democrats if the election were today and 44% for Republicans.
There is a strong correlation between party affiliation and how people would vote in congressional races, with 88% of Democrats voting for a candidate in their party and 92% of Republicans doing the same.
Independents are divided, with 41% supporting Democrats and 35% supporting Republicans.
Fine print
Mainstreet Research conducted a poll of 1,053 registered voters from March 15 to March 17 for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a partnership between the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.
The survey reached out to registered voters through text messages, asking them to complete the survey online via a provided link, and used automated phone calls to contact other voters. The margin of error for the overall survey of Democrats, Republicans, and independents is plus or minus 3 percentage points. However, the margin of error is higher for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, men and women, due to smaller sample sizes.
To contact Anthony Man, email him at [email protected] or find him @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net, and Post.news.
