Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 2.6% from the earlier projection of 3.2%. This revision is due to the fragile economic recovery, a slowdown in private investment, weak purchasing power of consumers, and delayed disbursement of the 2024 budget, according to the Centre of Economic and Business Forecasting of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTTC).
Today, Thanavath Phonvichai, who is the UTTC rector and head of the center, mentioned that the Thai economy in the first quarter is expected to grow by only 2%. Additionally, only two sectors, tourism and exports, have experienced ongoing growth.
He anticipated that the economic situation will improve in the second quarter to 2.5%, thanks to the disbursement of the national budget, the tourism sector, and exports. He added that the recovery is fragile and is primarily focused on certain export sectors, such as the export of rice, rubber, and fruits.
Although some consumer confidence has returned, it remains low. Many consumers are still feeling the impact of the COVID pandemic and higher interest rates, Thanawat noted.
Meanwhile, Vichien Kaewsombat, assistant director of the center, stated that economic recovery will become more visible in the third quarter, with an expected growth of 3.1%, as lending rates are projected to decrease in line with the anticipated decision of the Monetary Policy Committee to lower the policy rate.
The growth in the 4th quarter is predicted to be 2.8%, due to the high level of household debt, which will lead to an increase in non-performing loans. As a result, financial institutions will be more cautious in extending loans.
He also mentioned, however, that there is a possibility that the growth for the entire year could reach 3%, if the disbursement of the 2024 national budget can be expedited and the "digital wallet" scheme is approved swiftly.
