PHILADELPHIA — We are frequently overwhelmed with absurd football ratings given to NFL players by scouting services that sell subscriptions and promote their content on social media.
These ratings often lead to disputes, anger traditional coaches and fans, and turn discussions into shouting matches with insults, or worse. These supposed experts in football intelligence claim to assess every play of every game. In the past, they were more focused on gaining recognition. Nowadays, they use advanced algorithms and Artificial Intelligence to determine the fair value of player contracts.
In other words, if for example, you think Pro Football Focus (PFF) is not credible, then you must have been shocked by the contracts the Eagles offered to running back Saquon Barkley and defensive end Bryce Huff early in free agency.
Barkley received a three-year, $37.75 million deal with $26 million guaranteed, while undrafted Huff, who has yet to start a game in the league, agreed to a three-year, $51 million contract.
Historically, the Eagles don’t spend much on running backs. They didn’t offer deals to D’Andre Swift, who recently signed a three-year, $24.5 million contract with the Chicago Bears, or Miles Sanders, who secured a four-year, $25.4 million agreement with the Carolina Panthers two years ago. This was the richest deal for any free agent running back last year. Swift and Sanders both rushed for over 1,000 yards.
Last year, Barkley ran for 962 yards and six touchdowns, with 280 receiving yards and four scoring passes, totaling 1,242 yards. This was a significant drop from his previous year's 1,650 scrimmage yards.
I don't understand how the analytics considered the poor offensive line of the Giants, the performance of backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, who would struggle for a job in the United Football League, and the lack of offensive threats on the roster. But they did. And the Eagles, in their infinite wisdom, believe that signing Barkley is a great move based on how quickly they secured him.
In other words, the Eagles have data suggesting that Barkley should be worth every penny of that contract, despite my inability to comprehend how that could be true for someone who has endured six years of heavy hits and has been injured, on average, four games each season.
Regarding Huff (6-3, 255), who last season with the New York Jets sacked Eagles backup right tackle Jack Driscoll 1.5 times, hit the quarterback twice, and made one tackle for loss in a 20-14 victory for the home team at the Meadowlands, he is seen as a good fit for the defense of veteran Eagles coordinator Vic Fangio. Huff, 24, had 10 sacks last season … 2.5 more than in his first three seasons combined.
By the way, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has an agreement with all 32 NFL teams to provide research and analytics. It’s impossible to avoid their influence, so expect them to soon present data praising the Eagles' decision to sign Barkley and Huff. Teams have been using analytics in game planning for years. What fans know about analytics, according to former NFL general manager Mike Mayock, is “Just the tip of the iceberg.”
PFF may give the Eagles a high grade for free agency. We're not sure if the duo will bring the Eagles more wins than Swift and Josh Sweat, who hinted on Instagram that he might be traded.
To sum up, football fans: It's not just about what is visible on the field, but also about the unseen analytics that determine the market value of players. It's okay to consider Barkley's injury history.
It's still early, but Barkley has the support of Eagles Pro Bowl guard Landon Dickerson, who signed a $84 million deal with a $20 million signing bonus and $50 million guaranteed. It's not clear if he's a three-down back, and his receiving skills aren't great, but the 6-foot, 228-pound Barkley has shown that he can block linebackers, which would benefit Dickerson and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Dickerson said on Tuesday, "I'm really excited to add a talent like Saquon to the team. Every team has a one-year expiration date, so bringing in someone like Saquon adds to our talent. I can't wait to see what he does."
Contact Bob Grotz @delcotimes.com.
