By Herb Jackson, CQ-Roll Call
WASHINGTON — Voters in California may fill a vacant House seat on Tuesday, while elections in Illinois and Ohio will choose candidates for another empty seat, determine the outcomes of challenged current officeholders, and establish matchups for crucial races in the fall.
Several competitions have attracted significant financial investments, including one where three candidates have individually loaned their campaigns over $2 million each. Another competition has been influenced by ongoing animosity between two House Republicans from last year’s disputes over making former California Rep. Kevin McCarthy the House speaker.
There are also numerous districts in which one party is strongly favored and there’s no real competition. In a year that has experienced more resignations and retirements than usual, each of the 17 incumbents in Illinois is seeking reelection, and 11 of them, including 10 of the 14 Democrats, face no opposition in their party primaries. In Ohio, all five of the Democratic incumbents have no opposition in the primary, as do five of the eight Republican incumbents running.
Here’s a look at eight races in the three states that are worth observing on Tuesday.
Two Illinois current officeholders facing intense competition
Republican Rep. Mike Bost and Democratic Rep. Danny K. Davis both confront competitive challenges in Illinois.
In Chicago, 82-year-old Davis is seeking the Democratic nomination for a 15th term against four challengers.
City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin has raised $183,000 more than Davis since the cycle began, reports filed to the Federal Election Commission indicate. Up to Feb. 28, Conyears-Ervin spent $523,000 compared to the incumbent’s $497,000. However, she has encountered ethical allegations linked to her role as treasurer, and Davis has survived challenges before, including in 2022 when gun violence prevention advocate Kina Collins came within 6 percentage points of defeating him. Collins is running again but she amassed only $72,000 up to Feb. 28, and a pro-Israel super PAC spent $494,000 on ads and direct mail opposing her.
Davis’ 7th District favored President Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 73 points in 2020, and the race in November is rated “Solid Democratic” by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
In southern Illinois, a Republican battle is unfolding in the 12th District, where Trump beat Biden by 43 points and the November race is rated “Solid Republican.”
Bost’s campaign spent nearly $1.4 million from Jan. 1 to Feb. 28 as he seeks a sixth term. Running against him for the nomination is former state Sen. Darren Bailey, the state’s 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee.
Bailey’s spending up to Feb. 28 was only $192,000, but he has the support of one of the conservative base’s influential personalities, Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz. During the intraparty battles over appointing and then replacing McCarthy as speaker, Bost shouted at Gaetz on the House floor in January and reportedly lunged at him during a closed conference in October.
“I’m trying to change Congress, and we can’t do it with the people we have there now,” Gaetz told WSIL News at a campaign event for Bailey in February. "Mike Bost becomes upset and shouts at me because I create obstacles for some of the established interests in Washington, D.C."
Through Feb. 28, Bailey had used $205,000 of his own money out of the $505,000 he had collected, and since the month began, he's added an extra $105,000 of his own money to the competition, according to recent filings.
Bost, however, received Trump's endorsement shortly after Gaetz's visit to the district, a detail he touts in advertisements. Bost also has the support of Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and external organizations like the Illinois Agricultural Association have spent $122,000 to back him.
Three empty or available positions
McCarthy stepped down in December, and nine candidates are competing in a special election on Tuesday to serve the remaining portion of his term this year in California's 20th District. State Assemblymember Vince Fong, a Republican, is once again on the ballot after receiving the most votes on March 5 in an 11-candidate multi-party primary for a full term starting next year. Also running on Tuesday is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, a fellow Republican who finished second on March 5 and will compete against Fong in November. Votes are still being counted, but Fong's total in the primary stood at 42 percent and Boudreaux's at 24 percent as of Friday. On Tuesday, one of the candidates must receive over 50 percent, or there will be a runoff on May 21 to fill the seat.
In Ohio, there are competitive Republican contests for an open seat in the 6th District, left vacant by Republican Rep. Bill Johnson’s resignation resignation to take up the position of a university president in January, and for the 2nd District seat opening up next year due to the departure of Republican Rep. Brad Wenstrup. Trump won the 2nd District by 45 points and the 6th District by 29 points. Both races this autumn are classified as “Solid Republican.” retirement A special primary for the remainder of Johnson’s term and a primary for a full term are both being held Tuesday, and the same three Republicans are running in each race: state Sen. Michael Rulli, state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus and chiropractor Joe Tsai. Rulli and Stoltzfus have raised similar amounts, but a personal loan constituted $250,000 of the $488,000 Stoltzfus had collected through Feb. 28.
Rulli started with advantages: more of his legislative constituents are in the congressional district than Stoltzfus’, and he has run competitive campaigns before, Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin
have aired ads pledging to complete a border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Rulli’s ads also highlight his family’s reported. Both Rulli and Stoltzfus supermarkets , which could provide him with another connection in the district. Stoltzfus has presented himself as a “Christian conservative” and criticized Rulli as a “woke liberal” for sponsoring an anti-LGBT discrimination bill.In the 2nd District, there are 11 Republicans competing for the nomination. Three of them — concrete company owner and former prosecutor David Taylor, staffing company
Larry Kidd and former Marine owner drill instructor Tim O’Hara — each put more than $2 million of their own money into the campaign through Feb. 28 and are running as conservatives who support Trump. Former Cincinnati Council member Phil Heimlich has and retail franchisor criticized the others in the race for not paying attention to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and in says Democrats or independents can still request a Republican ballot. While Heimlich’s campaign had one ad spent only $121,000 , less than five others in the race, a super PAC called Buckeyes for Values that wasestablished in February and has not yet revealed its donors spent an additional $242,000 on mail and text messages supporting him. Two Democrats are on the ballot, but one of them, Joe Wessels, left the race in February and endorsed Heimlich. dropped out Ohio does not have a runoff system, so the crowded field of Trump supporters could divide the vote, and a Trump critic who appealed for Democratic and independent crossover votes could win the GOP nomination.
Three fall battlegrounds
Republicans will choose candidates to challenge three Democratic incumbents — Reps. Eric Sorensen of Illinois and Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes of Ohio — whose races could be competitive in November.
Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress who is seeking her 22nd term, is one of a few Democrats representing a district Trump won in 2020. The candidate she defeated last cycle, J.R. Majewski, ended his campaign for this year’s nomination earlier this month, though he remains on the 9th District primary ballot with state Rep. Craig Riedel, state Rep. Derek Merrin and former Napoleon Mayor Steve Lankenau.
had $1.5 million
Kaptur in her campaign account on Feb. 28, while Riedel had $234,000, followed by Merrin with $94,000 and Lankenau at $19,000. Riedel put an additional $80,000 of his own money into his campaign on March 11, on top of the $175,000 he’d previously loaned. Merrin is supported by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC allied with the House GOP leadership that spent $756,000 on ads, direct mail, text messages and phone calls supporting him. Americans for Prosperity Action has spent $227,000 supporting Riedel, who also has the backing of Ohio Republican Rep. Jim Jordan, a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus.
In Ohio’s 13th District, which Biden won with just 51 percent of the vote in 2020, Sykes is seeking a second term. Republicans vying to challenge her are Hudson City Council member Chris Banweg, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin and a former
television technician for the Goodyear blimp , Richard Morckel. Coughlin self-funded about half the $332,000 he had raised through Feb. 21, while Banweg got all but $13,000 of the $280,000 he raised from donors. Morckel did not raise and spend enough to file anIn Illinois’ 17th District, Sorensen is seeking his second term in a district Biden won with 53 percent in 2020. Retired Judge Joe McGraw has the fundraising edge over farmer and former union president Scott Crowl in the GOP primary. McGraw had raised $334,000 for the cycle, with FEC report.
numerous donations from House Republicans’ campaign and leadership PAC accounts. Donors gave Crowl just $7,400, and after he loaned his campaign an additional $91,000, he had $33,000 left on Feb. 28. Sorensen, meanwhile, had $1.8 million in his campaign account. Inside Elections
rates the November races for Sorensen’s and Kaptur’s seats as Lean Democratic and Sykes’ seat Tilt Democratic. One other race rated “Lean Democratic” in Ohio is that of 1st District Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman. While it may be a fall battleground, it is not in the primary: Both Landsman and Republican Orlando Sonza, an Army veteran, are unopposed in their respective primaries.
©2024 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Visit
cqrollcall.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Some contests have drawn heavy spending.
