The U.S. Census Bureau carries out many surveys to assist hundreds of federal programs and laws. One of these is the yearly population estimates for states and counties.
The estimates show how many people lived in an area as of July 1 of a given year, and how that has changed from previous years due to births, deaths, and movement to and from other places in the U.S. and foreign countries.
The estimates for 2023 were released Thursday and show that Pennsylvania once again hasn’t changed much since 2022. But the state’s relative stagnation disguises demographic turmoil among the 67 component counties.
Here are some key points from the new report.
Population virtually not growing
The state’s population has hardly changed more than a tenth or a percent from year to year since the 2010 Census. The only exceptions were a 1.5% increase from the 2019 estimate to 2020, and a 0.32% decrease from 2021 to 2022. Pennsylvania is estimated to have exceeded 13 million residents in 2021, but has dropped in the two following years, ending at 12.96 million people last year.
The map below shows overall population changes from 2020 to 2023 in each county. Hover on or select a county to see its ranking and underlying numbers. Forty-four counties lost population from 2020 to 2023, while 23 counties gained. Of the eight counties in and around the Lehigh Valley, only Bucks and Monroe lost population.
A special note about Forest County: although it ranks last in population growth, it is unique in that about 30% of its population is made up of inmates at the Forest maximum security prison. Therefore changes in prison population impact its numbers in an outsized way that counties with larger civilian populations don’t see. In April 2020 (when the Census was taken), the Department of Corrections reported 2,327 inmates. That number declined to 2,004 last July, a 14% decrease.
Births and deaths
Within those overall numbers are births and deaths, known in Census-speak as “natural change.” In the decade from 2010 through 2019, the state saw small increases in population due to natural change, meaning that there were more births than deaths. But that changed in 2020 when the state lost 7,386 people to natural change. The loss jumped to 25,416 in 2021, 23,462 in 2022 and 11,079 last year.
Birth rates remained steady during those years, at about 10 births each year per thousand residents, but the death rates spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. The table below shows average death rates for regional counties before and during the pandemic. The chart beneath shows annual death rates for Pennsylvania as well as Lehigh and Northampton counties.
While the state’s average death rate jumped about 17% during the pandemic, Monroe County’s soared almost 26%. But the highest death rates, both before and during the pandemic, were in Schuylkill, jumping from 13.37 deaths per year for each 1,000 residents from 2011 through 2019, to a rate of 15.43 during the three years of the pandemic.
The map underneath indicates the natural growth between 2020 and 2023 for all 67 counties. Only seven counties — including Lehigh — experienced a natural growth over the four years of the report. Hover over, or select a county to see its total numbers.
Migration
The Census Bureau keeps track of both movements within the country and movements across international borders, with these two types referring to the origin or destination of a resident’s move, rather than their citizenship status. Any move within the 50 states, the District of Columbia, or any of the outlying U.S. territories is considered domestic migration. Any move that crosses another country’s border is international.
Pennsylvania has had a decrease in population due to movements within the country in two of the three years covered by the new report. International movement remained positive for all three years, leading to overall migration gains in 2021 and 2023. However, with 39,731 people leaving Pennsylvania for other parts of the country in 2022, the 25,416 people arriving in the state from other countries that year was not sufficient to offset the deficit.
The map below displays the total net migration gains and losses for combined domestic and international movements. The chart below that illustrates domestic migration for each of the three years in the state and area counties.
Finally, the last chart displays both domestic and international migration numbers specifically for 2023. Two counties to the north of the Lehigh Valley exhibit significantly different experiences with domestic migration: Monroe lost 1,165 people (equating to a rate of 7 per 1,000 residents) who moved to other parts of the country; while Pike County had the highest domestic migration rate in the state, gaining 857 people (a rate of 14 per 1,000 residents) who moved into the county from other parts of the nation.
However, Monroe’s loss was less than half the rate of loss that Philadelphia experienced last year. It bid farewell to 27,667 people (17.75 per 1,000), a loss only partially offset by 7,038 people moving in from foreign lands.
