Nathan L. Gonzales | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call
WASHINGTON — While the upcoming presidential battle seems familiar with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump at the forefront, it's not going to be an exact repeat of 2020.
The contest may appear similar, but both candidates are carrying more baggage this time, leading to a level of unpredictability not typically seen in rematches.
The familiarity seems to be boosting the confidence of the current president. Biden recently stated, “I’m the only one who has ever beat him. And I’ll beat him again,” to The New Yorker. However, Biden finds himself in a weaker position compared to before. told The New Yorker recently about facing Trump again. But Biden is in a fundamentally weaker position this time around.
Instead of a challenger facing an unpopular incumbent, Biden is the unpopular incumbent seeking reelection. Voters are holding Biden responsible for the country’s problems while idealizing (or at least forgetting about) the challenges during Trump’s first term.
Biden’s job approval has been consistently low for two and a half years. The president’s disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating since the country’s departure from Afghanistan. Additionally, Biden is the oldest president in history, with much focus on his ability to serve a second term.
Last fall, Democrats consoled themselves by comparing Biden’s unpopularity to President Barack Obama’s standing in 2011. However, by this point in 2012, Obama's job rating had improved. Since public opinion has solidified around Biden, the president will probably have to depend on voters who disapprove of him to support his bid for a second term. Fortunately for Democrats, Trump provides an opportunity for Biden to do just that..
Having faced over 90 indictments across four federal cases and facing hundreds of millions in fines from civil cases, along with his failure to denounce his supporters during the Capitol invasion on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has given independent voters reasons to hesitate before giving him another term.
Yet, despite his numerous weaknesses, Trump is in a strong position if the election were held today. He leads by a couple points in the
average national polling , which may hold less significance than his polling lead in crucial swing states such asNorth Carolina Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, . However, the election is still over seven months away. and GeorgiaOptimistic Democrats may argue that Trump is at his usual standing and his polling advantage is a result of weak support for Biden. However, this overlooks the president’s challenges in the race and the difficult path to avoid the same fate as other unpopular incumbents who lost reelection, including President George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Trump in 2020.
While Biden may ultimately emerge victorious, it's difficult to see him having a clear advantage, as our current race ratings indicate.
Inside Elections is altering Michigan (and its 15 Electoral College votes) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-Up. With this change, the GOP nominee is predicted to win 235 Electoral College votes, compared to 232 for the Democratic nominee, leaving both short of the 270 needed to win. This leaves five states and 71 Electoral College votes in Toss-up, including Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).
Since ratings are a combination of where a race is and where it’s most likely to end up, states such as Nevada remain in Tilt Democratic for now. Even though it appears Trump currently has a lead, Republicans haven’t won the Silver State in a presidential race
since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004 . But Trump doesn’t need to win Nevada in order to get to the White House.On the other hand, Biden is at risk of losing Georgia, despite his narrow 2020 win and Democratic success in recent Senate races. Biden is
the only Democrat to win the Peach State since Democrat Bill Clinton’s victory with 43.5% in 1992. But Biden doesn’t need Georgia for a reelection. As the general election comes into focus, Democrats are counting on the contrast to boost Biden’s standing among base Democrats and independents. It’s a plausible path to victory, but if the race doesn’t start to take that shape before too long, it could be a difficult hole for Biden to climb out of.
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The race looks familiar with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump topping the ballot, but both men are bringing more baggage to the contest.
