Nathan L. Gonzales | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call
WASHINGTON — While the presidential race is heading towards a rematch, 2024 might not be the same as 2020.
The race seems familiar with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump leading the ballot, but both men are bringing more issues to the contest, creating a level of unpredictability that is not usually present in rematches.
The familiarity seems to be boosting the confidence of the current president. Biden recently told The New Yorker, "I'm the only one who has ever beat him. And I'll beat him again." However, Biden is in a weaker position this time around. told The New Yorker recently about facing Trump again. But Biden is in a fundamentally weaker position this time around.
Instead of a challenger facing an unpopular incumbent, Biden is the unpopular incumbent seeking reelection. Voters are holding Biden responsible for the country's problems while idealizing (or at least forgetting about) the challenges during Trump's first term.
Biden's job approval rating has been consistently low for two-and-a-half years. The president's disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating since the country's exit from Afghanistan. Biden is also the country's oldest president ever and there is a focus on his ability to serve a second term. disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating ever since the country's exit from Afghanistan. Biden is also the country's oldest president in history with a disproportionate focus on his ability to serve a second term.
Last fall, Democrats consoled themselves by comparing Biden's unpopularity to President Barack Obama's standing in 2011. But Obama's job approval rating had improved by this point in 2012. had improved by this point in 2012.
Since public opinion has solidified around Biden, the president will likely have to depend on voters who disapprove of him to support him for a second term. Fortunately for Democrats, Trump gives Biden an opportunity to do just that.
With more than 90 indictments in four different federal cases, hundreds of millions of dollars in fines due in civil cases, and his refusal to condemn his supporters as they invaded the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has given independent voters reasons to hesitate before giving him a second term.
Yet despite his significant list of weaknesses, Trump is in a strong position if the election were held today. He leads by a couple points in the national polling average, which does not carry as much weight as his polling lead in key swing states including North Carolina. But the election is more than seven months away. national polling average, which doesn't hold as much significance as his polling lead in key swing states including Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia. But the election is more than seven months away.
Optimistic Democrats may argue that Trump is still where he has always been, and his polling advantage is due to Biden's weak support. However, this overlooks the president's challenge in the race and the difficult task of avoiding the same fate as other unpopular incumbents who lost reelection, including President George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Trump in 2020.
While Biden may still ultimately win the race, it's difficult to see him having a fundamental advantage, as our current race ratings reflect.
Inside Elections is changing Michigan (and its 15 Electoral College votes) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-Up. With that change, the GOP nominee is favored to win 235 Electoral College votes compared to 232 for the Democratic nominee, leaving both short of the 270 needed to win. That leaves five states and 71 Electoral College votes in Toss-up, including Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).
Since ratings are a combination of where a race is and where it’s likely to end, states like Nevada stay in Tilt Democratic for now. Even though it seems Trump is currently in the lead, Republicans haven’t won the Silver State in a presidential race since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004. since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004. But Trump doesn’t have to win Nevada to reach the White House.
On the other hand, Biden is at risk of losing Georgia, despite his narrow 2020 win and Democratic success in recent Senate races. Biden is the only Democrat to win the Peach State since Democrat Bill Clinton’s victory with 43.5% in 1992. But Biden doesn’t need Georgia for a reelection. the only Democrat to win the Peach State since Democrat Bill Clinton’s victory with 43.5% in 1992. But Biden doesn’t need Georgia for a reelection.
As the general election becomes clearer, Democrats are relying on the contrast to boost Biden’s standing among base Democrats and independents. It’s a possible path to victory, but if the race doesn’t start to take that shape before too long, it could be a tough situation for Biden to overcome.
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