Former President Trump is leading President Biden in potential general election contests in five out of six crucial battleground states, according to new polls.
The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer surveys, conducted from April 28 to May 9, show that Trump is ahead of Biden among registered voters in Pennsylvania (47 to 44 percent), Arizona (49 to 42 percent), Michigan (49 to 42 percent), Georgia (49 to 39 percent), and Nevada (50 to 38 percent).
The polls indicate that Biden is leading in one state, Wisconsin (47 to 45 percent), among registered voters in the same hypothetical head-to-head between the two major parties’ presumptive nominees.
The findings are similar among probable voters, with the gap between the two candidates increasing by only 1 or 2 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. However, Biden's performance in Michigan improves by 5 points among probable voters and he leads Trump in the state (47 to 46 percent). In Wisconsin, Biden loses his advantage over Trump, who is leading among probable voters (47 to 46 percent).
When third-party and independent candidates are considered in the survey, the outcomes are similar. Trump is ahead of Biden, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holding the third position in Arizona (42 percent to 33 percent to 10 percent, respectively), Georgia (39 percent to 31 percent to 9 percent), Michigan (38 percent to 36 percent to 9 percent), Nevada (41 percent to 27 percent to 12 percent), and Pennsylvania (40 percent to 36 percent to 10 percent).
Trump and Biden are tied in Wisconsin among registered voters, each with 38 percent, and Kennedy receives 9 percent support.
The other third-party and independent candidates never receive more than 2 percent in any of the matchups, according to pollsters.
The poll results have not changed significantly since the most recent Times/Siena College surveys were conducted in October 2023, when Trump similarly led Biden in all five states except Wisconsin, where Biden had more support.
In the recent months, the Biden campaign has increased efforts to reach out to voters as Trump has at times been dealing with legal battles.
The new polling involved 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points when the states are collectively considered. The margin of error for each state ranged from 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania to 4.6 percentage points in Georgia.
