Former President Donald Trump has a small lead over President Joe Biden in the latest Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania voters ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
In the latest survey, Trump, the likely Republican nominee, leads Biden, the Democratic incumbent, by 3 points, 44%-41%, in a head-to-head matchup. That’s a change from Muhlenberg College’s last poll in December, when Biden led Trump by 1 point, 42%-41%.
The 3-point difference in the latest survey is within the margin of error.
In a 3-way race with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is launching an independent bid for the White House, Trump and Biden are tied at 35% each, while Kennedy gets 18%. Kennedy has not yet met the requirements to appear on the ballot in Pennsylvania for the November election.
Among the poll’s key findings: Biden’s low approval ratings are harming his re-election efforts in the Keystone State. Only 35% of voters approve of the job he is doing, and just 33% said he deserved to be re-elected, according to the survey’s key findings.
While Biden is dealing with low job approval, both he and Trump had high unfavorable ratings in the survey: 57% of those surveyed had an unfavorable view of Biden, while 55% did for Trump.
In Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, the numbers are nearly the opposite of the presidential contest. Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr., likely facing his toughest re-election challenge yet, leads Republican Dave McCormick by 4 points: 45%-41%.
Voters were evenly split between the two parties when it came to their choice of congressional candidate. According to the survey, 45% plan to vote for a Democrat, and 44% plan to support a Republican.
The telephone survey of 417 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted between April 15 and 25.
The Muhlenberg College poll aligns with other recent polls that have indicated a small advantage for Trump in the Keystone State.
A Hill/Emerson poll conducted last month showed Trump with a 2-point lead over Biden, 47%-45%, while a CBS News poll showed a 1-point lead for the former president, 50%-49%.
The latest Real Clear Polling average of Pennsylvania polls has Trump with a 1.6% lead over Biden.
You can view the full poll results below:
This story will be updated.
