In what seems to be a close competition this November, a recent survey shows President Joe Biden has a significant advantage in a direct showdown against former President Donald Trump in the important swing state of Pennsylvania.
However, the survey indicates that the advantage decreases when third-party candidates are considered.
In the newest version of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll released today, Biden is ahead of Trump by 10 points among registered voters who were asked to choose only between the two major-party candidates.
The survey reveals that if people were asked to choose between the two today, 48% would go for Biden and 38% would pick Trump.
In the previous survey, released in February, Biden was leading 43% to 42% over Trump.
However, when the options are expanded to include third-party candidates expected to be on the ballot, the margin between Biden and Trump becomes narrower.
After adding independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein to the question, 42% of registered voters chose Biden and 40% selected Trump. The 2-point difference falls within the poll’s margin of error.
Kennedy comes in third in the poll with 9% support, followed by “someone else” at 4% and those who don’t know who they would vote for at 4%. Stein finished last at 3%.
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at the Lancaster college, stated that the results reveal a decline in support for Biden among registered Democrats as more of them opt for someone else.
The survey also examines what voters admire about each of the candidates.
More respondents believe Biden has better judgment, is more trustworthy, and is closer to their views on issues compared to Trump. However, more voters think Trump is better at managing the economy and serving as the military's commander in chief.
When it comes to the likability ratings of Trump and Biden, both men struggle to win over voters.
The survey shows that 57% of voters have a negative impression of Biden and 60% have an unfavorable view of Trump. In total, one in five voters holds an unfavorable opinion of both candidates.
42% view Biden favorably, while 39% of registered voters rate Trump favorably.
The survey also revealed that almost 40% of voters feel that Biden and Trump are too old to continue serving in office. Biden is 81 and Trump is 77, which means that regardless of who wins, the victor will become the oldest person ever elected to the White House.
The U.S. Senate race
An overview of the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate contest shows that three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey would win a hypothetical competition against Republican Dave McCormick.
The survey found that Casey leads McCormick by 46% to 39% in a direct matchup.
About 40% of registered voters believe Casey is performing excellently or well as their U.S. senator — slightly lower than his ratings before his last reelection campaign in 2018, but higher than his ratings before his 2012 reelection.
McCormick is viewed more unfavorably (30%) than favorably (24%) by the state’s voters, although about half said they don’t know enough about him to express an opinion.
How the poll was conducted
Included in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll is a detailed explanation of how the survey was conducted:
The survey results in this announcement are based on the interviews conducted from March 20 to March 31. The interviews took place at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
The poll was planned and carried out by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this announcement represent the responses of 870 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 390 Democrats, 356 Republicans and 124 independents.
The group of registered voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were informed by mail about the survey. Interviews were finished over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference.
Survey results were adjusted (age, gender, education, geography and party registration) using an algorithm to mirror the known distribution of those characteristics among state voters. Estimates for age, geography and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data.
The sample error for this survey is 4 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.
