President Biden is leading former President Trump by 10 percentage points in a hypothetical 2024 general election match-up in a poll of registered Pennsylvania voters released Thursday.
The Franklin & Marshall College poll found that Biden got support from 48 percent of surveyed voters, while Trump got 38 percent. Meanwhile, 13 percent preferred “someone else,” and 1 percent didn’t know who to vote for.
Biden’s lead increased significantly from the previous Franklin & Marshall College poll. In the February 2024 poll, Biden was ahead of Trump by only 1 point — within the margin of error — with 43 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent. Another 12 percent supported someone else, and 2 percent did not know.
However, third-party and independent candidates seemed to be affecting Biden’s momentum in Pennsylvania, according to the poll.
When asked to choose between Biden, Trump, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Pennsylvania voters were more open to other candidates.
In that scenario, Biden received support from 42 percent of surveyed voters. Trump received 40 percent, Kennedy received 9 percent, and Stein received 3 percent. Another 4 percent preferred someone else, and 4 percent did not know.
Third-party candidates were slightly less popular in the February 2024 poll. Biden had support from 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters. Trump had 37 percent, Kennedy had 8 percent, and Stein had 2 percent. Seven percent said someone else, and 5 percent said they did not know.
Pennsylvania could be a critical state for Biden in the November election. After not having voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, the Keystone State surprised many observers by going red for Trump in 2016 by fewer than 50,000 votes. Biden was able to turn it back in 2020, but by only 1 percentage point.
The recent rise of third-party candidates, however, has raised concerns among Democrats who worry they might draw more support from Biden than from Trump.
According to the Decision Desk HQ polling average, Biden leads Trump by 1.1 percentage points in Pennsylvania. Nationally, Trump leads Biden by 0.7 percentage points.
The poll was conducted from March 20-31 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. For questions about a two-way match-up, the margin of error is 5.7 percentage points.
